The Iranian opposition has by no means lacked for a typical enemy. The Islamic Republic has furnished no finish of shared grievances, annoyed hopes, and collective traumas. And but, its adversaries have lengthy sorted themselves into mutually hostile subgroups. Now the deepest rupture is between those that assist former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as a transitional determine and those that oppose him.
Perversely, this division would possibly show to be the one which heals.
Final Saturday, in Grapevine, Texas, Pahlavi spoke to throngs of his supporters on the Conservative Political Motion Convention. Iranians made up a big proportion of CPAC attendees this yr, they usually greeted Pahlavi with passionate cheers.
In his speech, Pahlavi pledged to steer a transition to a “free and democratic Iran.” He referred to as on President Trump to proceed the American-Israeli army operation in opposition to Iran, within the hope of displacing a regime he decried for putting a “sea of blood” between itself and its individuals. “President Trump is making America nice once more,” he concluded. “I intend to make Iran nice once more.”
Pahlavi’s star flip in Texas showcased each the attraction and the constraints of his undertaking.
He rallied a powerful variety of supporters, who shouted his title at CPAC simply as their counterparts did in road demonstrations in Iran. However his unbridled assist for the struggle and his chumminess with the American proper have made him a polarizing determine amongst Iranians. Worse, the American president he praised and beseeched has proven little belief in Pahlavi and appears far more occupied with coping with the present management in Tehran.
The day of Pahlavi’s CPAC speech, I used to be in London, the place about 400 Iranians who opposed the regime however had been skeptical of Pahlavi had gathered for the launch of one thing referred to as the Iran Freedom Congress. The teams represented in London had spent years in bitter arguments with each other. The duty of the congress was to discover the potential of constructing a shared political car.
Within the 20 years I’ve spent observing and collaborating in Iranian opposition politics, I had by no means seen a gathering so broadly consultant because the one in London. Maybe that was partially as a result of the occasion’s major organizer was not himself a member of anyone diaspora activist group; fairly, he was a tech entrepreneur and former World Financial institution analyst named Majid Zamani, who had spent greater than 5 months in jail for supporting road protests in 2009.
Zamani’s organizing workforce included such numerous companions as Shariar Ahy, a monarchist and disgruntled former adviser to Pahlavi; Reza Alijani, a religious-nationalist author; the filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf; Esmayil Abdi, a former instructor and a commerce unionist; Mahdie Golrou, a former pupil activist and a secular feminist; and the leaders of a number of the political events of Iran’s ethnic minorities.
A few of those that got here to London had been seasoned exiles, however others, together with Zamani himself, had been newer arrivals from Iran and had strong hyperlinks to political figures contained in the nation. Among the many members had been socialists, ex-royalists, liberals, feminists, and nationalists. (I’d been invited as an educational and paid my very own means, although the organizers had supplied a full journey to all). Many people had confronted each other in on-line or televised debates previously. In London, we listened to at least one one other’s speeches and sipped espresso collectively throughout breaks. The notion that we would in the future be a part of the identical coalition didn’t appear so far-fetched.
The London convention was not the primary of its sort. Greater than 700 Iranians got here collectively in Berlin in 2004 to discovered the United Republicans of Iran. That group nonetheless exists (and its leaders attended the London assembly), however most of the unique members dropped out of it due to variations over techniques and technique, and the group that is still is small and ineffectual.
The situations of this second, nonetheless, confront the non-royalist Iranian opposition with a brand new urgency. Iran is at struggle, and its regime, after massacring protesters in January, has now hardened in fight. After which there’s Pahlavi. The previous crown prince has proven little curiosity in working with others except they first settle for his mantle. Final yr, his group organized a gathering in Munich the place audio system professed their loyalty to the would-be king; one even prostrated himself earlier than Pahlavi within the model of the Muslim prayer, declaring that he had “no faith” however that Pahlavi was his “Mecca.” Many within the former crown prince’s camp take a sharply antagonistic stance towards the remainder of the opposition.
Consequently, individuals in rival teams appear now to grasp that they should come collectively if they’re to supply another. (Zamani’s organizers invited Pahlavi to the London gathering, however there was by no means an actual likelihood that he would present up.) London was a step in that course.
Bringing the non-monarchist opposition collectively was a feat. However uniting it round a typical program shall be tougher. The congress prevented pushing resolutions or holding debates on essentially the most contentious political questions. Chief amongst these was the struggle, which a lot of these current, notably these on the left, strongly opposed; others, together with some from the Kurdish events, argued that ending the struggle below present situations would possibly assist extend the regime. The attendees additionally differed over the way forward for the congress itself—whether or not it ought to merely present a discussion board for dialogue amongst activists or turn into a membership group and a united political entrance.
The Iranian regime is deeply unpopular with its populace. 4 waves of protest since 2017 have explicitly demanded its overthrow. However the opposition has lacked a company and consultant leaders. If it needs to have any likelihood of dislodging the regime, it should construct a disciplined pressure that may overcome its variations to unite round a typical agenda. It should additionally forge hyperlinks with the opposition inside Iran and maybe even with parts inside the regime who may assist ease an eventual transition.
The London assembly made me hopeful that such a trajectory simply is perhaps doable. However obstacles stay. As if to remind us of this, because the assembly wrapped up, Pahlavi supporters surrounded the constructing to protest the congress. Frightened of a violent confrontation, the London police escorted us out a again door.
